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When it comes to the viability of ski resorts, it’s all a matter of degrees. According to a 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most recent estimate available at press time, temperatures will rise approximately 2.5 to 10.4 degrees by 2100. The impact of these hotter temperatures on ski destinations will be a one-two punch of fewer snow days and low-lying melt. Here, a look at the slopes already feeling the hit around the globe.
Over the past 60 years, Canada’s average temperature has increased 1.98 degrees, with six of the warmest years occurring in the last decade, according to a study from the University of Waterloo. This trend has been particularly evident along the coastline and at Whistler Blackcomb ski resort. Arthur DeJong, the mountain’s planning and environmental resource manager, reports that glaciers surrounding the resort have lost half their mass. The Horstman Glacier—a premier destination because of its groomed and mogul runs—has decreased in size from 428 acres in 1890 to just 86 acres in 2006.
It takes at least 100 wintry days for resorts in the Rockies to break even. Warmer temperatures shorten the ski season, putting profits at risk. The State of the Rockies Report Card, issued by Colorado College, predicts that springtime snowpack will have decreased by at least 37 percent by 2085 at all altitudes of the Rockies, from Montana to Colorado. Specifically, Telluride, Beaver Creek, and Sun Valley ski resorts are each facing losses of over 54 percent of their winter powder.
Between 1970 and 2002, temperatures increased 4.5 degrees throughout the Northeast—the equivalent of a New York winter turning into that of Washington, D.C., Cameron Wake, of the University of New Hampshire Climate Change Research Center, says. In 2001, the region experienced 16 fewer snowy days than it did in 1970, forcing many independently owned ski resorts to close their slopes forever.
This winter, the Alps had one of the warmest Novembers on record, according to the February 2007 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The group’s environmental director, Shardul Agrawala, predicts that if temperatures continue to increase at the current rate, the Alps will lose 40 percent of their runs by 2056. The three resort areas most at risk are the Alpes Maritimes, Steiermark-Styria, and Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, because of their low altitudes and proximity to the Mediterranean.
A recent study by Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization predicts that, at best, the region will warm by only 0.36 degrees over the next 13 years. At worst, temperatures will rise by 4.68 degrees and none of Australia’s ski resorts will be economically viable by 2070.
—Jennifer Welbel
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